The Australian share market has followed global stock markets in being rattled by concerns of the Coronavirus outbreak.
What’s needed next, says fund managers, is a clear sign that the number of new cases has slowed.
“Travel quarantines may have slowed the spread of the virus, but they haven’t eliminated them,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors.
According to Bloomberg, there are now 88,234 confirmed cases of the COVID-19 virus worldwide, with nearly 3,000 deaths so far.
While the growth in the number of new cases in China appears to be slowing — and the number of severe cases has indeed plateaued — the concern among many investors now seems to be the rise of cases outside the Asian state.
“The coronavirus has spread in meaningful proportions into Korea and Italy. That adds new dimensions to the scare,” Ms Shah said.
SARS & Corona
In recent months many market pundits have tried to draw parallels with COVID-19 and the outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong and China in the early 2000s.
According to fund management business, VanEck, the Chinese government’s reaction to SARS outbreak led to “much-needed healthcare reforms”. However, there are notable differences between China then and now.
“Compared to 2003, China is now more urbanised and more service focused,” VanEck’s Damon Grosen wrote.
“Back in 2003, the Chinese government could stimulate manufacturing in response to the crisis. This time the impact of such a strategy will be diminished so we expect, in addition to a spike in healthcare investment, stimulation will be targeted at the Chinese consumer.”
Binay Chandgothia, portfolio manager at Principal Portfolio Strategies says the two viruses may be similar in organic make-up but the impact on global supply is vastly different.
“Back then, China only accounted for 4% of global GDP. Today, its economy is four times larger, contributing more than 16% to global GDP,” Chandgothia noted. “And supply chains are infinitely more complex and intertwined.”
Opportunities ahead
While the long-term outlook for markets remains positive, most fund managers seem to agree that we could expect a tough intervening period, at least until the number of new cases is under control.
Ms Shah says the market is waiting for news that the virus is showing signs of being under control, then expects low-interest rates and central bank policies to stimulate a rebound in markets.
“The key hope rests on policy response—both fiscal and monetary—to dig the world economy out of what’s looking to be a disastrous quarter for growth.”
On the local market we’ve witnessed companies such as WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC), Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) and Blackmores Ltd (ASX: BKL) caution investors about the financial impact of virus on their bottom line.
The Sydney Futures Exchange is pointing to a soft open for ASX trading on Monday, March 2nd.
