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Macquarie (ASX:MQG) shares on watch, HY21 profit may drop 35%

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX:MQG) shares will be on watch after the global investment bank gave an FY21 half year update.

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares will be on watch after the global investment bank gave an FY21 half year update.

FY21 half year update

Macquarie gave investors a presentation today which included an update with its HY21 profit expectations.

The investment bank said that market conditions are likely to remain challenging, due to the significant and unprecedented uncertainty caused by the worldwide impact of COVID-19 and the uncertain speed of the global economic recovery.

Macquarie isn’t sure how these conditions will impact the business’ overall FY21 profitability, making forecasting extremely difficult for the full year.

However, Macquarie has had a go at estimating profit for the first half of FY21. It’s expecting profit to be down 35% compared to the first half of FY20 and down 25% on the second half of FY20.

FY20 Q1 update

Macquarie was able to give an update about its operating segments in the first quarter of FY21.

The investment bank has ‘annuity style’ businesses called Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) with $568 billion of assets under management and banking & financial services (BFS) which includes Macquarie Bank. This half of the business has seen its combined profit contribution up compared to FY20 Q1 primarily due to the sale of the rail operating lease business in MAM, partially offset by lower profit in BFS which includes higher credit provisions due to COVID-19.

Macquarie also has its market-facing businesses which are called ‘commodities and global markets’ (CGM) and Macquarie Capital. This business saw its net profit contribution fall due to significantly lower investment-related profit in Macquarie Capital, though this was offset by stronger profit in CGM.

Are Macquarie shares worth buying?

Management said the business remains well positioned to deliver superior performance in the medium term.

The investment bank continues to try to save costs and make things more efficient, which is good for margins.

One of the best reasons to like Macquarie is that it has a solid and conservative balance sheet. You never know when one of these world-changing periods is going to happen.

I like the direction that Macquarie is going such as its increasing exposure to investments into renewable energy.

Using CommSec profit estimates at the closing share price from Friday, Macquarie is valued at 16 times the estimated earnings for the 2022 financial year. I’d be fairly happy to buy Macquarie shares compared to most other blue chips with only perhaps CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) looking better to me.

Macquarie could also be a decent dividend idea, though there are other ASX dividend shares I’d buy first for reliability such as Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (ASX: SOL) which I wrote about here. You can bookmark Rask Media’s dividend page to come back for more dividend ideas.

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At the time of publishing, Jaz owns shares of WHSP.
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