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Up 40% this month, is it too late to buy Scentre (ASX:SCG) shares?

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the latest string of good news surrounding potential COVID-19 vaccines. Is it too late to buy?

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) has been one of the biggest beneficiaries from the latest string of good news surrounding potential COVID-19 vaccines.

Shares are up around 40% since the start of the month, however, future uncertainty around retail continues to weigh on the Scentre share price.

SCG share price chart

Source: Rask Media 1-year SCG share price chart

Scentre Group operates shopping centres under the Westfield brand in Australia and New Zealand. Not to be confused with Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (ASX: URW), which operates the same Westfield branding in the US, UK and Europe.

Is the Scentre share price a buy today?

I probably wouldn’t be a long-term holder of Scentre shares, as I think there are a few macro factors that could present some challenges.

Keep in mind that even prior to COVID-19, Scentre has struggled to significantly grow its earnings on a per-share basis. To invest for the long-term would be to expect a full recovery and then even more growth on top of that.

That said, I can partially see the appeal in capturing some potential upside back to Scentre’s pre-COVID levels as we see foot traffic and occupancy levels pick up to where they were. I think the important thing to think about is how long is this likely to take? And is my money better off somewhere else that could generate a higher return in that time?

Some have pointed out that Scentre’s shares have been trading at a significant discount to the company’s net tangible assets (NTA). While this form of value investing does have its merits, I think the market has valued Scentre shares at a discount for a reason. I wouldn’t be so sure that the market will eventually re-rate the Scentre share price back in line with its NTA.

1 ASX retail share I prefer

If I held Scentre shares right now, I’d probably hold onto them for a bit longer, but I also wouldn’t be a buyer at these levels. COVID-19 has accelerated the shift to online, so if I wanted exposure to retail, I’d probably pick a company that’s complemented by a strong online platform.

One ASX retail share I’m particularly liking at the moment is Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1). It’s a footwear retailer with a popular range of brands including Hype DC, Vans, and Timberlands.

Accent Group has achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 12.3%, and an annualised return to shareholders of 20.4% over the past 10 years.

It has plans to continually roll out new stores and I back management in being able to continue to grow the business. If you’d like to know more, click here to read my in-depth analysis of Accent Group shares.

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