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ASX 200 tipped to rise – REA, AMP, NWL & TWE shares in focus

The ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) is tipped to push higher when the market opens on Tuesday according to the latest SPI futures. Here’s what’s making headlines.

Brisbane lockdown hits ASX, Afterpay share price falls to 3-month low

The S&P/ASX 200 gave up a strong opening on US stimulus, ultimately finished 0.1% lower to start to the week after the Queensland Government announced a three-day lockdown of the city as community transmission of the UK COVID-19 variant was confirmed.

The ASX retail sector fell on the news with Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) and Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) bearing the brunt of cancelled holidays, down 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively.

The materials sector rallied and the energy sector fell on news that the Suez Canal blockage was almost cleared with business as usual to return.

The domestic ‘technology’ sector was the worst-performing, falling 2.8% as Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) tumbled 4.8% to a three-month low on valuation concerns.

Real estate platform Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (ASX: DHG) fell by the same amount after key competitor REA Group Limited (ASX: REA) announced an acquisition offer for CBA-backed mortgage broker Mortgage Choice Limited (ASX: MOC). The offer values the company at $244 million, a 66% premium to the pre-offer price, with Mortgage Choice shares jumping 62.5% on the news.

AMP getting clearer, Treasury Wine drained

Embattled wealth manager AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) shares fell 3.4% after the exclusive due diligence period to Ares Capital for the purchase of a portion of AMP Capital came to an end. The sell-off came despite management confirming Ares remains interested in the entire business unit; professional investors seem to be tiring of the slow progress.

Platform competitor Netwealth Group Ltd (ASX: NWL) continued to tank after last week’s news of renegotiation of the all-important cash rates it receives on account balances with Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) falling 3.8% as well.

The worst was confirmed for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) after the Chinese Government legislated the 175.6% tariff and anti-dumping penalty, with the tax to remain in place for at least five years. Management reiterated that it may take up to three years to divert the $500 million in product previous sold to China each year.

Meanwhile, Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX: TAH) rebuffed unsolicited offers for its wagering and media businesses, citing that each of them undervalues the business whilst also flagging the formalisation of a ‘strategic review’ in a likely effort to stimulate a bidding war.

Financial and energy hit amid hedge fund sell-off

The news of the weekend was the huge selling pressure placed onto a number of US and Chinese companies as a little-known hedge fund manager was forced to liquidate their positions.

According to reports the ~US$20 billion Archegos Capital was last week subject to a margin call across many of the largest positions in companies like ViacomCBS (NASDAQ: VIAC), Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) and Tencent (HKG: 0700), which sent their respective share prices down significantly.

The cause was Archegos’ strategy of establishing positions through highly leveraged margin loans or contracts for difference, which allow a much larger holding in return for a small amount of collateral. Unable to settle the margin calls, the fund’s bankers were forced to step in, with the likes of Nomura Holdings (TYO: 8604) and Credit Suisse (SWX: CSGN) falling around 14% each after flagging significant losses on their exposure.

The result was a weak day for the Nasdaq, down 0.7% and a flat finish for the S&P 500. The Dow Jones benefitted from a jump in Boeing (NYSE: BA) shares after Southwest Airlines ordered another 100 737 Max Aircraft, sending the Boeing share price up 2.4%.

The Golden Rules of Investing

We might be experts in retirement, but with combined financial advice experience of 35+ years, we’ve nearly seen it all. 

In mid-2023, our senior team at Wattle Partners Financial Planning put the finishing touches on a brand-new report “The Golden Rules of Investing“.

In this free report, we outline the key principles that determine all of the portfolio construction and investment decisions of Wattle Partners. Collated over decades, this paper should be seen as a work-in-progress, constantly under review in light of the ever-evolving nature of markets. 

You’ll find the free report on my Author page. Simply click the button below to view the Golden Rules.

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At the time of publishing, the author of this article does not have a financial or commercial interest in any of the companies mentioned.

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Wattle Partners is a financial advice firm, servicing clients around Australia, specialising in retirement planning (pre and post retirement). 

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