The Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) share price is under the spotlight today after reporting its FY21 third quarter update.
How did Coles do in FY21 Q3?
Total supermarket sales were down 6.1% year on year to $7.7 billion. The business is now cycling against the COVID-19 impacts that included high levels of pantry stocking.
However, Coles also included a reference to the performance two years ago. Sales went up 6.8% compared to two years ago.
There was growth in the one-year growth statistics for liquor and Coles Express sales. Liquor revenue rose 2.6% to $759 million and Express sales increased 7.4% to $275 million.
What’s happening?
Coles said that at the end of the third quarter and in the first few weeks of the fourth quarter, consumer behaviour has started to normalise.
The supermarket business said that Australians enjoyed Easter together, customers are returning to shopping centres and CBD stores, there was increased shopping trips and improved transaction growth, and Sunday returned to the busiest trading day of the week.
Online sales continue to be an important source of growth for Coles. Online sales to household consumers went up 57%. It has launched a few different offerings to improve service including ‘Click and Collect Rapid’ (order to pick-up in 90 minutes) and the Coles Plus membership offer.
One of the most important statistics was that Coles own brand delivered $2.5 billion of sales, reaching 31.6% penetration.
Interestingly, there continues to be deflation of supermarket prices. There was 0.2% deflation, with 0.8% deflation excluding tobacco and fresh products.
Outlook
In the first four weeks of the FY21 fourth quarter, supermarket sales (adjusted for ANZAC Day timing) increased by approximately 4% while the growth rate over two years was approximately 8%.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, supermarkets sales in the month of April were subdued to social distancing restrictions on traditional family events such as Easter, as well as the pantry destocking following the March surge.
My summary thoughts on the Coles share price
It was going to be almost impossible to match the sales performance of last year’s COVID sales and no immigration growth.
I guess it’s not too surprising that the Coles share price dropped after reporting season. However, it seems like investors were looking at Coles shares with quarter to quarter trading performance rather than the long term.
Coles is certainly not cheap, but I think it’s better value after its decline. I’d prefer to own Coles over the big banks for income, but there are other ASX dividend shares that may be able to generate better growth.
