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Valuing the FMG share price

Want to value the Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) share price? Here are 6 key metrics you need to consider.
The Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) share price is down -33.68% in 2024. Let’s take a look at why you might want FMG shares on your watchlist.

FMG share price in focus

Fortescue Ltd is an iron ore production and exploration company with assets located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Perth.

Fortescue’s main operation is in iron ore production, shipping more than 190 million tonnes annually. However, Fortescue has also been ramping up exploration activities across Australia, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, and Kazakhstan for materials like copper, rare earths, and lithium.

This is part of Fortescue’s long-term strategy to take advantage of the shift to renewable energy. Demand for copper, lithium, and other rare earths are expected to skyrocket and Fortescue intends to fill that demand.

Let’s talk profits

If you’ve ever tried to read a company’s income statement on the annual report, you’ll know it can get pretty complex. While there are any number of figures you could pull from this statement, three key ones are revenue, gross margin, and profit.

Revenue is important for obvious reasons – everything starts here. If you can’t generate revenue, you can’t generate profit. What we’re concerned about is not so much the absolute number, but the trend. FMG last reported an annual revenue of $18,220m with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last 3 years of -6.5% per year.

Moving down the income statement, we then get to gross margin. The gross margin tells us how profitable the core products/services are – before you take into account all the overhead costs, how much money does the company make from selling $100 worth of goods or services? FMG’s latest reported gross margin was 52.4%.

Finally, we get to profit, arguably the most important figure. Last financial year Fortescue Ltd reported a profit of $5,683m. That compares to 3 years ago when they made a profit of $10,295m, representing a CAGR of -18.0%.

A pulse check on FMG shares

The next thing we need to consider is the capital ‘health’ of the company. What we’re trying to assess here is whether they’re generating a reasonable return on their equity (the total shareholder value) and have a decent safety buffer. One measure we can look at is net debt. This is simply the total debt minus the company’s cash holdings. In the case of FMG, the current net debt sits at $497m.

A high number here means that a company has a lot of debt which potentially means higher interest payments, greater instability, and higher sensitivity to interest rates. A negative value on the other hand indicates the company has more cash than debt (a useful safety buffer).

Another figure we can look at is the debt/equity percentage. This tells us how much debt the company has relative to shareholder ownership. In other words, how leveraged is the company? FMG has a debt/equity ratio of 27.6%, which means they have more equity than debt.

Finally, we can look at the return on equity (ROE). The ROE tells us how much profit a company is generating as a percentage of its total equity – high numbers indicate the company is allocating capital well and generating value, while a low number suggests the profits might offer more value if they were paid to shareholders as a dividend. FMG generated an ROE of 30.2% in FY24.

What to make of FMG shares?

The high return on equity might suggest that the FMG share price is worth watching, but I’d be wary of the negative trend in profit and revenue.

Please keep in mind this should only be the beginning of your research. It’s important to get a good grasp of the company’s financials and compare it to its peers. It’s also important to make sure the company is priced fairly. To learn more about share price valuation, you can sign up for one of our many free online investing courses.

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