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I’m watching the FMG share price in 2024

The Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) share price is down around 39.7% since the start of 2024. It's probably worth asking, 'is the FMG share price priced to perfection?'
The Fortescue Ltd (ASX:FMG) share price is down around 39.7% since the start of 2024. The Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX:WOW) share price is 0.7% off its 52-week low.

FMG share price in focus

Fortescue Ltd is an iron ore production and exploration company started by the well-known Australian polymath Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest. The company was founded in 2003 and has assets across the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

Fortescue’s main operation is iron ore production, shipping more than 190 million tonnes annually. However, Fortescue has also been ramping up exploration activities for materials like copper, rare earths, and lithium. This exploration covers countries including Australia, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, and Kazakhstan

This is all part of Fortescue’s long-term strategy to take advantage of the shift to renewable energy. Demand for copper, lithium, and other rare earths are expected to skyrocket with increasing battery and electric vehicle production and Fortescue intends to fill that demand.

WOW shares

Founded in 1924, Woolworths is a retail operator in Australia and New Zealand with over 3,000 stores and over 100,000 employees. It is one of Australia’s largest companies in terms of revenue and market share.

Woolworths’ main operations include supermarkets (under the Woolworths brand in Australia and Countdown in New Zealand), retailing through its discount department stores under the Big W brand, and business-to-business (B2B) brands like PFD. However, its 35%+ market share of Australian groceries is undoubtedly its crown jewel.

Woolworths is a very popular choice for many ASX investors seeking dividend income. Historically, it has consistently paid a fully franked dividend, usually at a yield of over 3%, and offers a very defensive earnings stream with most revenue coming from consumer staples. Its competitive advantage is best summarised as scale (distribution, low costs, etc.) and proximity (most shoppers still shop based on distance to the supermarket).

FMG share price valuation

One way to have a ‘quick read’ of where the FMG share price is could be to study something like dividend yield over time. This can give us a sense of the stability of the company and whether they can consistently pay out a percentage of profits.

Remember, the dividend yield is basically the ‘cash flow’ to a shareholder, but it can fluctuate year-to-year or between payments. Currently, Fortescue Ltd shares have a dividend yield of around 11.07%, compared to its 5-year average of 10.52%. In other words, FMG shares are trading higher than their historical average dividend yield. Be careful how you interpret this information though – it could mean that dividends are growing, or it could mean the share price is falling, or both. In the case of FMG, the annual report shows last year’s dividend was greater than the 3-year average, so the dividend has been growing.

WOW is offering a historical dividend yield of around 4.90%, which compares to its 5-year average of 2.92%. Of course, this is just one of many ways you could put a value on WOW shares. The Rask websites offer free online investing courses, created by analysts explaining valuation methods like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Dividend Discount Models (DDM). They even include free valuation spreadsheets! It’s important to look at multiple methods when you’re trying to value the WOW share price.

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